By Joseph and Sumay McPhail
Russia's invasion of Ukraine marks the official end of the old world order. Since 1945 the USA led the allied powers to defend Freedom and Democracy across the globe. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall … interest in upholding the old world order has been steadily eroding. The New World Order is now moving back to one more analogous to the default of history. That default can be best described as the “Law of the Jungle”. Law in autocratic controlled countries is now governed by power more than ethics. Humans are slowly recognizing that freedom was never free.
The New World Order has two spheres of influence. The Neoaxis and Allies. The old Axis grew out of successive diplomatic efforts by Germany, Italy, and Japan leading up to WWII. The first step was an alliance between Germany and Italy in October 1936 declaring all European countries as part of the “Rome–Berlin Axis”. This created the term "Axis" which we now use again to refer to the “Russia-China Axis” that stands in favor of Autocracies and threatening global freedom and democracy.
Countries across the globe are starting to recognize the need to re-define themselves in relation to these two spheres of influence. Many need to do this now in order to protect their existence and thrive in an increasingly uncertain world. That alignment will depend on many factors. We created a Freedom Score to help us identify the new borders of the New World Order.
Two Spheres of Influence
The Neoaxis and Allies are creating two spheres of Influence. The Allies are still led by the United States and stand for Freedom and Democracy. The USA still controls the dollar, the world’s global reserve, leads NATO, and maintains the longest living Democracy. Despite our challenges the USA has consistently come back to defending our role as the global defender of Freedom and Democracy.
The Neoaxis stand only for power. Power without Democracy is the greatest enemy to human Freedom. China is the leader of the Newaxis … as the world’s largest economy by purchasing power. Russia is the world’s largest country by land and resources. While Russia is not generally considered a global superpower … much depends on the strength of Russia’s relation to China for this characterization to be accurate. Russia’s economy is dramatically less resilient and peoples far less cohesive than China. However, together they stand for the accumulation of power as the ultimate currency influencing their global strategy.
What follows is our methodology and score for allegiance of countries based on seven factors that we believe to be helpful in making this determination.
Allegiance Score Methodology
We looked at seven variables to calculate a “Freedom Score”. You can think of this score as representing the allegiance of the country to “Freedom and Democracy” vs “Autocracy and Power”. We started with an existing “Human Freedom Index” (HFI) calculated by the World Population Review. We use this index as a starting point to then adjust based on our own assessment of factors not factored and weighed into the index for our purposes given recent events.
We calculate our Freedom Score (FS) by adjusting the “Human Freedom Index” (HFI) by two “Influence Scores”...one for the Neoaxis (NIS) and one for the Allies (AIS) plus an on top manual adjustment (MA).
Equation 1: FS = HI + AIS - NIS + MA
Human Freedom Index (HFI)
The HFI is an annual report that evaluates the state of human freedom. The report covers 165 countries representing 98.1% of humans in 2021. The HFI attempts to provide a broadly comprehensive measure of personal and economic freedom that merges into a single value titled simply "Human Freedom." High HFI scores are meant to identify the freest countries in the world.
Twelve factors are used to construct the HFI including…
Rule of Law
Security and Safety
Association, Assembly, and Civil Society
Expression and Information
Identity and Relationships
Size of Government
Legal System and Property Rights
Access to Sound Money
Freedom to Trade Internationally
There are numerous challenges with creating any such index because of the high degree of judgment involved. Different scientists may come up with different factors and fail to take into account the changing world order. We reviewed this list and found several factors to be problematic:
Security and Safety … This can change rapidly to zero for both in an autocratic country.
Size of Government … Government size does not have a strong relationship to freedom.
Freedom to Trade Internationally … This data is old and no longer reflects reality.
Regulation … The impact on freedom depends on the nature of the regulation.
There are numerous factors that are also missing from the HFI for it to truly be a “Freedom Score”. Former Soviet Union countries and countries tightly controlled directly or indirectly by China are grossly mis-measured by the HFI which places zero weight on recent events driving alignment of countries based in spheres of influence. Hong Kong was listed as 8.41 … a very high score, despite being taken over by China which maintains tight control over speech and information shared within its circle of influence. Ukraine has another relatively high score at 6.86 despite being under threat of existence.
For these reasons we employ factors to adjust HFI to create our “Freedom Score”.
Allied Influence Score (AIS)
We employ three factors to create the “Allied Influence Score” (AIS). Taken together these factors are meant to reflect adjustments to HFI that increase the influence of countries in support of the Allies. These factors include…
Old Order Alliances (OOA)
Equation 2: AIS = OOA + D + A
Old Order Alliances (OOA) mainly come in the form of the NATO Alliances. We use NATO alliances as a proxy for this factor. If a country is part of NATO the OOA will be equal to one. If not it will remain at zero.
Democracy (D) has a way of helping humans grow to appreciate freedom. The longer the Democracy the more the people tend to appreciate their freedoms. We use the length of time a country has been a Democracy to help further adjust the “Freedom Index” to account for years as a standing Democracy. The Democracy score is calculated through the type of democracy using the data from (5).
The Americas (A) include all countries in North America and Latin America. If they are part of the Americas, A is equal to one. If not, the score will be zero.
Neoaxis Influence Score (NIS)
We employ two factors to create the “Neoaxis Influence Score” (AIS). Taken together these factors are meant to reflect adjustments to HFI that increase the influence of countries in support of the Neoaxis. These factors include…
China Sphere Influence (CSI)
Russia Sphere Influence (RSI)
Equation 3: NIS = CI + RI
China Sphere of Influence (CSI) includes the degree to which China holds influence over other countries beyond factors included in the “Freedom Index”. We use years of Belt & Road investment as the proxy for this factor. Belt and Road began in 2013. We divide by three to get a CSI score between zero and a maximum of three. For example, Afghanistan started to receive support from China through the Belt & Road initiative in 2013. They have the maximum CSI score of 3 = (2022-2013)/3.
Russia Sphere of Influence (RSI) includes the degree to which Russia holds influence over other countries beyond factors included in the “Freedom Index”. We use the former Soviet Union countries as a proxy for this factor. All of these countries receive a score of two.
Manual Adjustment (MA)
We added a “Manual Adjustment” (MA) to the score to account for factors that we believe are not captured by the AIS and NIS factors. For example, Russia’s occupation of Ukraine is obviously not captured by existing factors.
We applied a negative five (-5) to China and Russia given our view that they are the leaders of the Neoaxis Sphere of Influence. We applied a negative two (-3) to Ukraine and Taiwan to signify the decrease in both their “Freedom Scores” as a result to Russia’s invasion and new World Order. This flows through our model in “Equation 1” as an increase in the “Neoaxis Influence Score”. We also applied a MA of plus one to India given its more recent rise in global significance outside of NATO and long standing Democracy.
No other countries have received adjustments at the time of our original publication.
Results from this analysis point to a rough first draft of the new World Order. Many judgments went into making this map. The world is changing rapidly and we hope to keep up by using th’s framework to create some level of discipline and rigor to our analysis. We will also be using this map to identify areas of the world we can invest in without as much fear of losing control of our capital.
Top twenty countries by Freedom Score are listed below. These countries and scores are subject to change. In no way are these sores meant to reflect the views or opinions of any individual person.
Bottom twenty countries by Freedom Score are listed below. These countries and scores are subject to change. In no way are these sores meant to reflect the views or opinions of any individual person.
Freedom is one of the defining principles of WEquil Group. We believe that for freedom to survive we must be willing to speak out against threats to freedom and democracy both at home and abroad. We have done so ... at times being very critical our extremists in both political parties here in the USA. We did so in the immediate aftermath of Russia's attack on Ukraine. We continue to do so on our Discord Server where we collaborate to grow our human, financial and digital capital so that we may use our influence to be a positive force in the world.
Joe McPhail, CEO of WEquil Group
Sumay Lu, CEO of WEquil.App, WEquil.Startups, and WEquil.School.